This guidebook presents historical and new material to assist the reader to understand NFL game strategies and provides a winning betting strategy. The authors, William Ziemba and Leonard MacLean are professors, traders, financial analysts and sports enthusiasts. They covered ideas like the game's strategies, and shared their wealth of personal experience analyzing the regular season, the playoffs and the Super Bowls in the years 2010–2017. The results of their actual betting for the 2009–10 to the 2017–18 seasons are provided. The authors concluded the book with a forecast for the 2018–2019 season. They determine the players most valuable to win the games, discuss crucial decisions and provide prediction methodology. The authors concluded with a forecast of the top teams, players and odds to win the 53rd Super Bowl.
Chapter 1: Why NFL football is interesting & the plan for this book
Contents:Why NFL Football is Interesting & the Plan for This BookThe Basics of NFL Games, Strategies and WageringTeam Composition — Are the Best Players on the Best Teams?Misconceptions of the Media and the Value of Proper AnalysisElo Ratings: Superbowl Playoff Ratings: Two Versions of the EloAnalytical Tools: Arbitrage, Mean Reversion, Risk Arbitrage and the Favorite-Longshot BiasHow the Playoffs are Organized and the 2009–2010 Playoffs and SuperbowlThe 2010–2011 Playoffs and the Super BowlThe 2011–2012 Playoffs and the Super BowlThe 2012–2013 Playoffs and the Super BowlThe 2013–2014 Playoffs and the Super BowlThe 2014–2015 Season, Playoffs and the Super BowlThe 2015–2016 Season, Playoffs and the Super BowlThe 2016–2017 Season, Playoffs and the Super BowlAnalysis, Predictions, Results and Betting 2017–2018The 2017–2018 Playoffs and the Super BowlELO Team Strength Ratings: Predicting Win Probabilities and Point Spreads in NFL Games in 2017–2018Changes for the 2018–2019 SeasonReferences
Readership: NFL fans who want to have an indepth knowledge of NFL players, coaches, history of NFL as well as the future of the game.
NFL Players ;Coaches;Strategies;Mean Reversion;Efficient Markets;Sports Enthusiasts0Key Features:NFL football is one of the most popular sports with a worldwide following. This book covers everything fans, coaches, players and bettors want to know in one convenient placeThe authors provide a forecast of the results for the 2018–2019 season. This would be of interest to NFL fans and enthusiasts